Feature through which we can predict and imagine what is going to happen.
When kiting, one of the biggest sources of unpredictability is weather conditions. Practicing in a geographically unstable place (strong and gusty winds, extreme waves) or in a stable one (constant trade winds, calm water) is very different.
The instability of the conditions therefore influences the riskiness. It is thus not fair to say that kitesurfing is a dangerous sport, but it would be more appropriate to claim that kitesurfing in certain places or under certain circumstances is more dangerous.
Just as running in the street among cars is more dangerous than running on the bike path.
It’s the predisposition to be exposed to the possibility of being attacked or harmed, either physically or emotionally.
Hence, a beginner will be, whatever his activity, more prone to a harmful event than an experienced person, all variables being equal.
It is essential to balance vulnerability with ease.
The emphasized example of a beginner who self-launch his kite and ends up on a tree, should not be symptomatic of the riskiness of the sport, but rather of the stupidity and hubris of the person. He is vulnerable and he is making things more complicated. On the contrary, if he/she follows a course the probability of ending up in a tree or injured would be very low.
Being aware of one’s limits is essential.
- Probability and Frequency
The probability is he extent to which an event is likely to occur, measured by the ratio of the favorable, or unfavorable, cases to the whole number of cases possible. While frequency is the rate at which something occurs over a particular period of time or in a given sample.
Being two purely mathematical formulas, they tend to exclude subjectivity, i.e. the risk taking of the individual.
Any data must be pertinent to the risk taken by the subject and assessed as such.
Although we do not have valid and relevant statistics, I would say that the probability tends to be minimal when we refer to accidents involving an experienced rider practicing in stable and predictable weather conditions.
Severity is directly proportional to the consequence of a harmful event.
For this reason the severity of the damage of an individual jumping 30 meters with a kite will be potentially higher than the one who sails quietly close, but not too much, to the shore in non-hazardous weather conditions.
A kiter does not necessarily expose himself to serious risks by complying with safety rules and not taking uncontrolled risks.